My Super Bowl Prediction

I believe I’ve mentioned this on a prior blogletter entry and no doubt have told many of you this in person, but I’m an enormous football fan. Almost obsessive at times, what with fantasy football and all of that. So I’d feel remised if I created a “Super Bowl” edition of the blogletter and didn’t actually say anything about, you know, the Super Bowl.

I know many predict the television ratings to be down for this game – despite the fact a team with such a huge following is in it (the Steelers). There's no team from New York or Boston, no Cowboys, etc – but I for one am pretty excited that the Arizona Cardinals are in the big game. Yeah, they’ve been a non-factor for decades, and yeah, they really have no discernable fan base outside of Arizona (and may not even have much of a fan base there, actually), and yeah, I’m still bitter that their 4th string wide receiver knocked the Vikings out of the playoffs in 2003… but for me it’s always fun seeing a new team get a chance to play in the big game. Not to mention the fact that one of our own (Larry Fitzgerald) has grown up and become one of the best players in the game right before our eyes over the past few weeks (well, he’s been there all year, the world just noticed it over the past few weeks).

Then there’s the Steelers… pretty much the opposite of the Cardinals. They’ve already won 5 Super Bowls, and they’re the overwhelming favorites to win this one. But as a Minnesotan, how can you cheer that hard against a team that employs three former Gophers (Matt Spaeth, Tyrone Carter, Gary Russell) and three ex-Vikings (Mewelde Moore, coach Mike Tomlin… heck even punter Mitch Berger!)? I can’t.

So ultimately I’d be pretty happy with either team winning. But who is going to win?

It’s a classic “immovable object vs. irresistible force” game on paper. Pittsburgh has one of the finest defenses, statistically, in NFL history this season. They had the #1 overall defense, the #1 defense against the pass, and only the Vikings had a better defense against the run. Meanwhile, Arizona has an offense that is playing at a level matched by very few others in the history of this league. They had THREE wide receivers go over 1,000 yards this season! (as a point of reference, the Vikings’ top guy only had 964 yards himself) Their quarterback, Kurt Warner, had a phenomenal season at an age when most players have hung up the cleats.

Many people aren’t buying the Cardinals yet – after all, this is a team that gave up 4 touchdowns to Tarvaris Jackson less than two months ago – which is why the Steelers are a 7-point favorite. But Arizona has become an increasingly trendy pick lately – many online polls have more fans picking them to win than the Steelers, despite being 7-point underdogs.

There’s a couple precedents here which I will base my pick upon:For one, having a team that was not a top-2 seed (in this case Arizona was the 4th seed in the NFC going into the playoffs) win it all is not only not uncommon, it seems to have been the norm this decade. Baltimore in 2000, Pittsburgh in 2005, Indianapolis in 2006, and the Giants last year all won the Super Bowl despite being a lower seed. Particularly in the past three years, the eventual winners were the team that “got hot” at the right time, which is certainly what Arizona has done the past three weeks.

Secondly, and for me the most important thing, is the story behind the coaches. For those that don’t know, both Cardinals’ head coach Ken Whisenhunt and assistant coach Russ Grimm were part of the Steelers staff as recently as two years ago. Both were in the running for Pittsburgh's head coaching position and both desperately wanted the job. Whisenhunt was also being courted by Arizona at the time, and just didn’t feel confident enough that Pittsburgh was going to offer him the role, so he ended up bolting for the Cardinals. Grimm was assumed to have won the position, but it was given to then Vikings’ defensive coordinator Mike Tomlin. Grimm left to rejoin Whisenhunt in Arizona.

Why I think this is important (apart from the obvious revenge factor): fast forward to this year, where both ex-Steelers coaches get to face off against their former team in the big game Sunday. Now, it’s been two seasons, but the Steelers offense really operates much the same way it did when Whisenhunt coached in two years ago. Many of the players are the same – Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward, Willie Parker, Santonio Holmes, etc. Do you think Ken Whisenhunt knows a thing or two on what they do, or more importantly, how to stop them?

There is a precedent for this as well – in 2002, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (my “other” favorite football team – another story for another time) faced off against the Oakland Raiders in the Super Bowl. Tampa’s coach, Jon Gruden, had just coached Oakland the previous year, and Gruden’s specialty was his offensive scheming. The offense he had established in Oakland was pretty much the exact same that they brought into the 2002 Super Bowl. Gruden’s knowledge of this offense helped prepare Tampa’s defense in such a way that the Buccaneer players literally knew what was coming when Oakland was on the field. The end result: Oakland quarterback Rich Gannon threw a Super Bowl-record 5 interceptions, three of which were returned for touchdowns (also a Super Bowl record) and Tampa Bay won convincingly, 48-21 (despite being slight underdogs heading into the game).

I do think that Whisenhunt’s knowledge of the Pittsburgh offense is going to give Arizona a strategic advantage, and I think Arizona’s offense is clicking so well right now that they’ll be able to score enough points on Pittsburgh’s #1 defense.

I think it will be a close game, but my prediction is: Arizona 20, Pittsburgh 14.